Met-Office predicted all heavy rainfall events of Sindh timely during
Monsoon 2011 Arif Mahmood, Director General
Arif Mahmood, Director General of Pakistan Meteorological Department informed
that rapidly changing climate of the region is a major cause of unprecedented
rains in Sindh during monsoon season that caused severe flooding in the
province. Three strong weather systems (monsoon low pressure areas) entered in
the country during August and September that produced widespread heavy rains in
Sindh. During Monsoon 2011, Pakistan received 72% above normal rainfall. Sindh
received 247% above normal rainfall that is the highest rainfall ever recorded. He
also informed that Met Office after Flood 2010 has improved the capability of
medium-range forecasting from 3-5 days to 7-10 days with a lead time of 3-4 days
(i.e., 3-4 days before the occurrence of rainfall + Duration of rainfall spell).
Met Office predicted all weather systems before time to reduce the life and
property losses, and all weather advisories/press releases are available on
website of the department as;
Press Release: Aug 6, 2011:
Widespread rains predicted in the country during coming week
Monsoon would be ACTIVE over Pakistan during 2nd and 3rd
week of Aug, 2011
(First Spell produced rains between 10 – 13 Aug)
Press Release: Aug 27, 2011:
Widespread Heavy Monsoon Rains predicted in the country during coming week
Heavy rains may cause severe flooding in Lower Sindh
(Second Spell produced rains between 29 Aug – 13 Sep)
Press Release: Sep 9, 2011:
Another Spell of Monsoon Rains Predicted in Sindh from Sunday evening to Tuesday
(Third Spell produced rains between 12 – 14 Sep)
He
further informed that Met Office prepared and issued an early Seasonal Forecast
of Monsoon on 13th June 2011, based on “regional data” in the
guidance of WMO South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum (SACOF). In this
forecast, no significant rains were predicted. However after getting the
“updated regional and global data”, Met Office updated the Seasonal Forecast of
Monsoon on 24th June 2011 (Monsoon Alert) where it was clearly
mentioned the “Three to four heavy rainfall events (rainfall amount exceeding
200 mm per day) are expected during Monsoon 2011 that may generate flooding in
the country”. The updated Seasonal Forecast was public on due date and was also
given to the concerned authorities on 24th June, 2011 (available on
website of Met-Office:
http://pakmet.com.pk/MON&TC/Monsoon/monsoon(2010).html) It
is important to mention that the “Science of Seasonal Forecast (Long range
Forecast)” is still in the developing stage in the World and the prediction of
any extreme rainfall event in seasonal forecast (three months before) is not
possible in the world.
Climate change blamed for Sindh flooding
According to the lead author of Pakistan Climate
Change Policy, Dr. Qamar uz Zaman Chaudhry, climate change may be the
responsible of severe floods in Sindh. ISLAMABAD: A weather scientist on Friday blamed
climate change for the unprecedented torrential monsoon rains in Sindh that have
caused severe flooding in the 16 districts of Sindh province. “If we look at the frequency and the trend of the
extreme weather events impacting Pakistan then it is easy to find its linkage
with climate change,” said Dr. Qamar uz Zaman Chaudhry Advisor, Climate Affairs
in a statement here. The pattern of recent extreme weather events in Pakistan
show clear indication of increased frequency and intensity of such events in
Pakistan which is in line with the international climate change projections, he
added. Dr Qamar, who is also the lead author and
architect of the country’s first Draft National Climate Change Policy, said
Pakistan is heading for increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather
events, which includes frequent floods and droughts. “We need to adapt and plan
for that,” he said and added, the formulation of Draft National Climate Change
Policy is the first step in this direction. He said the rains in Sindh are the
highest ever recorded monsoon rains during the four weeks period. Before the
start of these rains in the second week of August, Sindh was under severe
drought conditions and it had not received any rainfall for the last 12 months.
The last severe rainfall flooding in Sindh occurred in July 2003, he said and
added, but this time the devastating rains of 1150 mm in Mithi, Mirpurkhas 676
mm, Diplo 779 mm, Chachro 735 mm, N. Parker 792 mm, Nawabshah 547 mm, Badin 512
mm, Chhor 456 mm, Padidan 381 mm Hyderabad 249 mm etc during the four weeks
period have created unprecedented flood situation in Sindh. According to Dr.
Qamar, the total volume of water fallen over Sindh during the four weeks is
estimated to be above 37 million acre feet, “which is unimaginable. ”He said
that the rainfall was predicted well in advance by Met Office and the disaster
management agencies were well prepared. “But the scale of this natural calamity
combined with the topography of the area having very poor natural drainage. Most
of water stagnates and breaches in LBOD and irrigation channels further
complicated the scale of flooding.” Dr. Qamar said that it was also forecast
that in Pakistan climate change would be causing considerable increase in
frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with erratic monsoon
rains causing frequent floods and droughts, and increased temperature would
result in enhanced heat and water stress conditions, particularly in the arid
and semi-arid regions. Source:
http://www.dawn.com/2011/09/11/climate-change-blamed-for-sindh-flooding-2.html
Expert links Sindh rains with climate change KARACHI, Sept 9: Unprecedented torrential
monsoon rains lashing Sindh and causing flash flooding in 16 districts of the
province have a direct linkage with global climate change, says a climate
expert. Responding to Dawn queries, Federal Advisor on
Climate Affairs Dr Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry said that the volume of total water
fallen over Sindh during the four weeks period is estimated to be over 37
million acres feet.The pattern of extreme weather events in Pakistan in the
recent past has shown a clear indication of increased frequency and intensity of
such events in Pakistan, in line with international climate change projections,
he stated. Dr Qamar, who is associated with the formulation of the country’s
first draft National Climate Change Policy, explained that rains in Sindh during
the four-week period are the highest-ever recorded monsoon rains.Before the
start of these rains in the second week of August 2011, Sindh was under severe
drought conditions and did not receive any rainfall in the previous 12 months,
he explained.A previous severe rainfall, which led to flooding in the province,
had occurred in July 2003. But this time devastative rains of over 1,150mm in
Mithi; Mirpurkhas (676mm); Diplo (779mm); Chhachhro (735mm); Nagar Parkar
(792mm); Nawabshah (547mm); Badin (512mm); Chhor (456mm); Padidan (318mm);
Hyderabad (249mm), etc., have created unparallel flooding in Sindh.The area
might not have seen rains of such a magnitude in recent years.The rainfall, he
said, was predicted well in advance by the meteorological offices, and the
disaster management agencies were also well-prepared, but owing to the scale of
this natural calamity (combined with the topography of the area having very Dr Qamar said it is very difficult to link any
single weather event to a climate change, if we look at the frequency and trend
of extreme weather events impacting Pakistan, it would be easy to find its
linkage with climate change.He said that the pattern of extreme weather events
in Pakistan in the recent past is showing a clear indication of increased
frequency and intensity of such events in Pakistan which are in line with
international climate change projections. The climate change has become a
reality for Pakistan, he stressed.The climate expert said clearly Pakistan is
heading for an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events which
included frequent floods and droughts, and the need of the hour is to plan for
the future changes.He said that the government had already taken first step in
that direction as draft national climate change policy was being formulated. Source:
http://www.dawn.com/2011/09/10/expert-links-sindh-rains-with-climate-change.html
Date: 25th August,
2011
Press Release
Chance for the sighting of new moon of Shawwal, 1432 AH on the evening of
30-08-2011
Astronomical data indicate that there is a Chance for sighting
the new moon of
Shawwal, 1432 Hijri on
the evening of 30-08-2011(i.e. on 29th of
According to PMD, the following threshold values of the astronomical parameters
are essential for sighting the new moon of Shawwal,
1432 Hijri .
·
Age of the new moon should be more than 31 hours at
the time of twilight for sighting new moon
, whereas this time
it is more than 34 hours in most parts of the country.
·
Minimum duration for the new moon after sunset should be more than
41 minutes whereas at this occasion, it is more than 40 minutes in coastal areas of
country.
·
The positions of the new moon and its angles at the time of sunset
are also favorable for sighting of the new moon in coastal areas.
As such conditions for sighting the new moon of Shawwal, on August
30th
, 2011 are consonant with the prescribed criteria. Therefore, 1st day
of Shawwal would
start from Wednesday,
31st August 2011 in
the country (Insha'Allah).
--sd--
Naeem Shah
Director, CDPC
Karachi
Date: 30th July,
2011
Press Release
Good Chance for the sighting of new moon of Ramzan, 1432 AH on the evening of
01-08-2011
According to astronomical parameters, there is a Good Chance for sighting
the new moon of
Ramazan-ul-Mubarik, 1432 Hijri on
the evening of 01-08-2011(i.e. on 29th of Shaban, 1432 AH, Monday).
The weather is expected fair/partly cloudy in most parts of the country on
Monday evening. Therefore, the holy month of Ramazan-ul-Mubarik, would
commence from Tuesday,
2nd August 2011,
subject to confirmation by the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee.
According to PMD, the following threshold values of the astronomical parameters
are essential for sighting the new moon of Ramazan-ul-Mubarik,
1432 Hijri .
·
Age of the new moon should be more than 31 hours at the time of
twilight for sighting new moon of Ramazan-ul-Mubarik
, whereas this time
it is more than 43 hours in most parts of the country.
·
Minimum duration for the new moon after sunset should be more than
41 minutes whereas at this occasion, it is more than 50 minutes in most parts of
country.
·
The positions of the new moon and its angles at the time of sunset
are also favorable for sighting of the new moon.
As such conditions for sighting the new moon of Ramazan-ul-Mubarik
, on August 1st
, 2011 are consonant with the prescribed criteria. Therefore, 1st day
of Ramazan-ul-Mubarik would
start from Tuesday,
2nd August 2011 in
the country (Insha'Allah).
poor natural drainage), most water stagnated and breaches in Left-Bank Outfall
Drain and irrigation channels further complicated the scale of flooding. He said
that weathermen had been warning that climate change would cause a considerable
increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with
erratic monsoon rains, causing floods and droughts. Moreover, a further increase
in temperature may result in enhanced heat and water stress conditions,
particularly in arid and semi-arid regions.
Naeem Shah
Director, CDPC
Karachi
Date: July 11, 2011.
Press Release
Ten PMD Officers Successfully Completed MS Meteorology From China.
Ten officers of Meteorological Department have returned after completing their MS Meteorology at Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), People Republic of China. Pakistan Meteorological Department initiated the process of seeking training opportunities for its officers in some Chinese universities. For this purpose NUIST, China, the Regional Meteorological Training Center of WMO was selected for higher education in the field of Meteorology. The course was conducted in English with necessary Chinese language for daily life. The Students were partially funded from ongoing project (Capacity Building of Pakistan Meteorological Department), which aims to provide training opportunities to officers of PMD in the field of Meteorology, Hydrology and Seismology.
China Meteorological Administration has been very kind to extend financial support to pay tuition fee and some subsistence allowance to Pakistani officers. The officers who have completed MS in China include.M/S Zubair Ahmed Siddique, Deputy Director , Zaheer Ahmed, Babar, Deputy Director, Muhammad Tahir Khan, Deputy Director, Sabir Ali, Deputy Director, Ali Baqadar Shah, Deputy Director, Muhammad Hassan Ali Baig, Meteorologist, Wash Dev Khatri, Meteorologist, Muhammad Fahim Ahmed, Meteorologist, Shehzad Sultan, Meteorologist and Muhammad Athar Haroon, Meteorologist.
Spokesman
Dated: 1st January, 2011
Press Release
Mr. Arif Mahmood Chief Meteorologist promoted to the post of Director General Pakistan Meteorological Department
The Federal Central Selection Board has promoted Mr. Arif Mahmood, Chief
Meteorologist (BS-20)
to the post of Director General (BS-21) of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD),
the national weather, climate and seismology service of Pakistan. He has been
serving as Deputy to the Director General PMD since January 2006 and officiating
as Acting Director General of PMD since 13th September, 2010. He is the most
experienced and senior most officer of the national meteorological service and
author of around 20 research papers and articles. He has also represented
Pakistan in several international scientific meetings and conferences and
delivered keynote lectures. He is a member of various scientific
committees at national level and also the chair of World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) Working Group on WMO Information System and integrated
Observing System(WG-IOS/WIS).
Mr. Airf Mahmood joined PMD as a Meteorologist in December, 1978 after doing his Master's in Physics from the University of Punjab, Lahore. Later, he completed various courses in Meteorology and did his Postgraduate studies in Seismology from Japan in 1986. He also participated in the First Pakistan Mission to Antarctica which was carried out from December, 1990 to February, 1991. He did his M.S. in Defence & Strategic Studies from National Defence University, Islamabad in 2008. During his over 32 years of service in PMD, he held various positions and posts which include Senior Aeronautical Forecaster at Meteorological office, Karachi Airport; Senior Seismologist at Geophysical Centre, Quetta; Senior Instructor at PMD's Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics, Karachi and Project Director of Wind Potential Survey of Sindh-Makran coast.
Dated: 10th December, 2010
Press Release Time of Issue: 1800 PST
Foggy Weather Conditions Predicted in Punjab during Next 10 Days
No Rains expected: Cold and Dry Weather will continue for another 10 Days
Met Office informed that due to continuously prevailing dry weather conditions, with decreasing temperatures and high trend of humidity, the probability of occurrence of Dense and Prolonged Fog in Punjab has increased during the coming days. Shallow foggy conditions have already observed in some parts of upper Punjab during early mornings of last 2 days. The shallow foggy weather is expected to become dense during the weekend, enveloping most parts of Punjab from Sunday.
Fog on Saturday
Dense Fog is expected to prevail over Northeast Punjab (Lahore and Gujranwala divisions) on Saturday morning. Some sectors of Motorway (M2: Lahore – Pindi Bhatiyan, M3: Pindi Bhatiyan - Faisalabad) and National Highway (N5: Lahore – Gujrat & Gujranwala - Sialkot) may remain in the grip of Dense Fog on Saturday morning (from 0500 – 1000 PST). Moderate and Shallow patches of Fog are very likely to develop over Peshawar Motorway (Swabi – Charsada - Noshehra sectors) on Saturday morning.
Fog on Sunday - Saturday
Dense Fog is expected to prevail over most parts of eastern and central Punjab (Lahore, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Bahawalpur divisions) from Sunday to Saturday (mid-nights to early mornings). Moderate and Shallow Foggy weather is also expected in Multan and Sukkar divisions during the period.
Most sectors of Motorways (M1, M2 and M3) and Natioanl Highway (N-5) will remain in the grip of Dense Fog during the coming
week (from late-nights to early mornings). The drivers are advised to remain very careful during the foggy weather conditions.
Dated: 2nd December 2010
Cold Wave Likely to Grip Pakistan on Saturday
Light Rain/Snowfall Predicted in Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir during Sunday-Tuesday.
Met office warned that a severe cold wave is heading towards Pakistan, and likely to grip most parts of the country, especially northern Balochistan, on Saturday. The cold wave conditions are likely to prevail in most parts of the country from Saturday to Tuesday, and Severe cold wave conditions with strong winds will grip Quetta valley during the period making the mercury level further down (Minimum ≈ -08 → -12 oC ).
Met Office further informed that isolated rain/with snowfall over the hills is also expected over upper Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and adjoining areas during Sunday to Tuesday.
Spokesman
Concept Paper
SAARC Workshop on “Science and Technology Issues on Climate Change”
October 25-26, 2010
Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) in collaboration with Ministry of Science & Technology (MoST) is conducting an international workshop amongst SAARC member countries in October 25-26, 2010 at Islamabad. The theme of the workshop is “Science and Technology Issues on Climate Change”.
Climate change and its impacts on human life is quite an evident issue now-a-days. The earth is warming up, and there is now overwhelming scientific consensus why it is happening? With increase of global warming and species and their habitats on the decrease, chances for ecosystems to adapt naturally are diminishing. Many are agreed that climate change may be one of the greatest threats facing the planet. Recent years show increasing temperatures in various regions, and/or increasing extremities in weather patterns.
This workshop will explore climate change impacts on fast growing science and technology fields and will recommend steps to redress or minimize these effects so that S & T could better serve the humanity in general and people of the area in particular. The experts from SAARC countries will deliberate upon and share their experiences through their research papers. No doubt, S & T and climate change effects are vast fields and as such requires a comprehensive discussions and recommendations. However, the following topics have been selected to cover the broad field:
- Climate / Weather related issues: including Rise in temperatures; More rain in monsoon and in coastal areas; More unpredictable weather patterns; Increasing sea levels; Increase in Evaporation; Less rain in dry season and in dry areas; More frequent cyclones & storm surges
- Water related issues: including drought; Flooding, Ground water stress; Melting mountain / glacier snow;
- Agricultural related issues: Impacts of climate change on crop yield; increased weed and pest challenges; decline in yields and production; Saline intrusion and the uses of water in agriculture;
- Energy related issues: including climate information that supports energy management and seasonal forecasting, infrastructure, energy planning such as biomass and renewable;
- Ecosystems and Air Quality: including wild fire, invasive species, managed ecosystems (e.g., agriculture, forestry), carbon sequestration and air quality related issues
Scientists through this Workshop would try to develop regional assessments of climate change that are essential to the local policymakers who will have to make the critical decisions about how to respond.
The workshop Program Committee invites abstracts by users of climate science as well as members of the research community on above mentioned topics related to the major themes of the workshop.
The proposed workshop will serve as a forum / hub to address progress and future plans for Climate Research on three decision-support approach:
- Prepare scientific synthesis and assessments on key climate change issues.
- Develop and illustrate adaptive management and planning capabilities.
- Develop and evaluate information and methods to support climate change policymaking.
Presentations related to the above mentioned areas should address one or more of the following topics:
- The type of information that decision makers and other stakeholders need to inform decision making;
- Evaluation of the current state of observations, modeling, or other research and its appropriateness for use in decision making at different Scales;
- Example applications of scientific information to support decision making; participant experiences;
- Methods of communicating scientific information, including incorporation of information about levels of confidence and uncertainty in decision making;
- Methods and metrics for evaluating outcomes; and
The Program Committee will review all submitted abstracts. Decisions about which presentation to include will be made on the basis of several criteria, including quality, relevance to workshop objectives, and diversity in presentation as well as material (topics, scale of efforts, etc).
All individuals are required to submit an abstract of their selective topic latest by 30 th September, 2010 to undersigned on following mail address:
Mr. Jan Muhammad Khan,
Director (Planning),
Pakistan Meteorological Department Headquarters Office,
Post Office Box # 1214,
Sector H-8/2,
Islamabad-PAKISTAN
Email: ddpakmet@yahoo.com
Phone: +92-51-9250596 (Office)
+92-51-9242824 (Res.)
+92-0333-5512317 (Cell)
Successful individual(s) will be informed whether their proposed topic has been accepted / selected by 7 th October, 2010.
Minister of Information talking about current flood
|
|
Dated: 16th August, 2010
Time: 1400 PST
DG Met Qamar Zaman receives Sitara-i-Imtiaz
ISLAMABAD Aug 15 (APP): The President has conferred national civil award “Sitara-i-Imtiaz” to Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Director General Pakistan Meteorological Department for his achievements in the field of Climate Sciences, at national and international levels. Dr. Qamar earlier won the “SAARC Best Scientist Research Award” in 1993 and “President’s Pride of Performance” award in 1999.
In December 2008, Dr. Qamar was elected as Vice-President of UN’s World Meteorological Organization Asia region for four-years term. He is also Secretary UNESCAP-WMO Intergovernmental Panel on Tropical Cyclone Indian Ocean.
Dr. Qamar has published more than 50 scientific papers in national and international journals. He is generally known as father of modern meteorology in Pakistan for transforming Pakistan Met Office as a credible state of the art Meteorological Service in the region.
WMO now presents Pakistan Meteorological Department as a role model to other developing countries in the region.
Date: 09th August, 2010
Press Release
RAMAZAN-UL-MUBARIK LIKELY TO COMMENCE IN THE COUNTRY FROM AUGUST 12, 2010.
Pakistan Meteorological Department
The current astronomical analysis by Pakistan Meteorological Department suggests that there is a fair chance of sighting the new moon of Ramazan-ul-Mubarik, 1431 Hijri on the evening of 11 th August, 2010, in the country, especially in Sindh and Balochistan provinces. Therefore, the holy month of Ramazan-ul-Mubarik , would commence from 12 th August, 2010 on Tuesday, subject to confirmation by the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee.
According to PMD, the following threshold values of the astronomical parameters are essential for sighting the new moon of Ramazan-ul-Mubarik, 1431 Hijri .
-
Age of the new moon should be more than 31 hours at the time of twilight for sighting new moon of Ramazan-ul-Mubarik , whereas this time it is more than 35 hours in most parts of the country.
-
Minimum duration for the new moon after sunset should be more than 41 minutes whereas at this occasion, it is more than 45 minutes in most parts of Balochistan.
-
The positions of the new moon and its angles at the time of sunset are also favorable for sighting of the new moon, especially in Sindh and Balochistan provinces.
As such conditions for the sighting the new moon of Ramazan-ul-Mubarik , on August 11 th, 2010 are consonant with the prescribed criteria. Therefore, 1 st day of Ramazan-ul-Mubarik would start from 12 th August, 2010 on Tuesday in the country(Insha'Allah).
(Muhammad Aleem-ul-Hasan)
Deputy Director
Islamabad: 10th June, 2010
Press Release:
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Commended Pakistan Met. Office for Timely Warnings of Tropical Cyclone "PHET"
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) regional office Asia has appreciated Pakistan Met. Office for the Cyclone Warnings issued for the Tropical Cyclone "PHET" which formed in Arabian Sea and struck Oman and then Pakistan coastal areas during first week of June, 2010. WMO in their letter has started that they closely followed the Cyclone Warning issued by Pakistan Met. Office and appreciated for their timeliness and accuracy, and delivery to the relevant authorities and the public through media. WMO has also commended the leadership role of Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry in handling the Cyclone Early Warning personally and Met. Office staff for their hard work and dedication. It is pertinent to mention that Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Director General Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) is also the Secretary of the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones which has been playing pivotal role in capacity building of National. Meteorological Services of this region through its various programmes and activities including trainings and expertise in Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge Forecasting and Warnings at WMO Specialized Regional Training Centers.
Spokesman
Pakistan Meteorological Department
