Dated: 6^th January, 2012

 Below Normal Rain Predicted for Winter 2012

Using statistical model and downscaling output of Global Circulation Model, the most probable seasonal precipitation has been predicted. All the land-sea-atmosphere indicators around the globe contributing to the South Asian Winter precipitation were incorporated.

Seasonal Outlook:

Total amount of precipitation during the winter season (January-March) is expected to remain 10-20% below normal.

Monthly Outlook

            January:

According to model predictions, precipitation in January is likely to remain below normal by about 25-30%. Mainly dry weather will continue over low elevation plains and 2-3 moderate spells of snowfall are predicted over the mountains.

            February:

A few good rains are expected in the second half of February which would neutralize the first drier half. In this way February is expected to receive normal amount of precipitation.

            March:

Due to increased convection, localized precipitation events will occur producing about 15-20% above normal precipitation during March.

            Seasonal Outlook is prepared at 80% confidence level.

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(ARIF MAHMOOD)

Director General, PMD

Date: January 12^th , 2011

Outlook: Winter 2011

“La Niña phenomenon, causing abnormally low precipitation with low temperatures in Pakistan so far, is still prevailing and expected to continue well into the Northern Hemisphere during winter/spring 2011, as predicted by most of the global models.”

On the basis of prevailing atmospheric circulation and Global weather conditions, prior to winter period, an attempt is made to predict the probable amount of rainfall, which is likely to occur in Pakistan during the winter period (January to March, 2011). Such prediction aims to satisfy the statistical test for 80% success (i.e. to be correct four times out of five in the average).

On consideration of Global available data, there are 80% chances that the winter rainfall from January to March 2011, on all Pakistan bases will be below normal (-20%). The expected monthly precipitation outlook is;

-                     January expected to receive largely below normal precipitation.

-                     February may receive slightly below normal precipitation.

-                     March may receive nearly normal precipitation.

The normal rainfall (area-weighted) for the period January – March for Pakistan is 70.5 mm.

(NAEEM SHAH)

Director, CDPC

Dated December 1^st, 2010

 WINTER RAINFALL IN PAKISTAN DURING THE PERIOD DECEMBER TO FEBRUARY 2010-11

 NORMAL WINTER RAINS PREDICTED

             On the basis of prevailing atmospheric circulation and Global weather conditions, prior to winter period, an attempt is made to predict the probable amount of rainfall, which is likely to occur in Pakistan during the winter period (December to February 2010-11). Such prediction aims to satisfy the statistical test for 80 % success (i.e. to be correct four times out of five in the average).

            On consideration of Global available data, there is 80% chance that winter rainfall from December to February 2010-11, on all Pakistan basis will be nearly normal. However, the northern parts of Pakistan may receive slightly above normal  (+ 10 %) precipitation due to one or two strong wet-spells during the month of January / February 2011.

            The normal rainfall (area weighted) for the period December to February for Pakistan is 51.99 mm.

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(NAEEM SHAH)

Director